We are living through a golden age for wide receiver talent.
We are on a fast track towards a nasty wide receiver contract bubble.
Front offices need to slow down receiver paydays.
All these statements can be true.
Let’s take a step back.
Top tier wide receivers are entering the league ready to produce at an astounding rate
2021: Ja’marr Chase broke records his rookie year, finishing 4th in Touchdowns and 3rd in Receptions. Jaylen Waddle posted a 1,000-yard season.
2022: Garrett Wilson finished with 1,100 yards and the 3rd most targets for a rookie WR.
2023: Puka Nacua set a record for rookie receiving yards, and finishes 2nd in targets for a rookie.
2024: Malik Nabers is pacing for 1,300+ yards, even with a pessimistic injury outlook. Brian Thomas Jr. is on track towards 1,200.
The “second class” of rookie performance has been no disappointment, either. Twenty-one wide receivers have finished with 800+ receiving yards in their rookie year since 2020.
Now they’re signing their extensions
2 elite wide receivers got their bags at an average of 79 MM fully GTD. at signing: Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb. Ja’marr Chase is sure to enter this space.
6 more great WRs were paid in rookie extensions at an average 37 MM fully GTD: Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr, Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Nico Collins.
3 unspectacular WRs paid at 30 MM fully GTD: Jerry Jeudy, Gabe Davis, and Darnell Mooney.
The tidal wave is not stopping
Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Chris Olave, and Tee Higgins are nearing the end of their rookie contracts, and are deep down the path to mega-deals.
Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, Zay Flowers, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Jordan Addison, and Josh Downs are all second-year pass catchers on track towards paydays.
This is an absurd amount of young wide receiver talent. And they’re all getting paid.
Veteran wide receivers get contracts too. Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, Mike Evans, D.J. Moore, and Tyreek Hill all signed large contracts this off-season.
This paints a clear picture: The cost of a wide receiver room is sharply increasing. 1/4 of the NFL is paying two receivers’ large contracts: 49ers, Dolphins, Eagles, Bears, Texans, Bengals, Buccaneers, and Titans.
Top paid receiver cap hits are swelling
In 2025, the top 15 wide receiver cap hits average $27 MM.
In 2024, this number was $20 MM
In 2023, this number was $16 MM.
In 2025, the top 30 wide receiver cap hits average $20 MM.
In 2024, this number is $14 MM.
Not only is the market rate of highly paid wide receivers increasing, but more
importantly, with this off-season in the books, the volume of highly paid receivers is increasing.
And while, yes, the cap is increasing too, it isn’t pacing the rate contracts are growing.
Top 15 avg. cap hit as a % of cap increases to 10% in 2025 after 10 years around 7.5%.
Top 30 avg. cap hit as a% of cap increases to 7.3% in 2025 after 10 years around 5.8%.
I hypothesize that this bubble is going to burst within the next four years
The megastar deals aren’t going anywhere. The greats of the greats will get their paydays. Jefferson, Lamb, Chase, Brown, and Collins (that’s right) caliber players will get their extensions. But it is going to become harder to justify large deals for anyone else.
It’s simple supply and demand. By my estimations, there are 20 or so “tier two” receivers in the league, and another 20 who are productive by their own right. Receivers are entering the league much faster than they phase out, and this trend isn’t forecasted to stop in the immediate future.
Productive careers are getting longer. Sports science is enabling longer careers. Players manage their diet, sleep, and exercise more diligently than ever. And receiver draft classes are getting stronger every year. The ”weak” 2023 class is no joke despite its lack of “top tier” talent, and the 2024 class has the talent and the depth. The supply of WR talent is lapping demand.
The “upper-middle class” of receiver contracts should collapse. Rookies are just going to cycle in and out, producing through their deals, then reaching reasonable (Mooney, Jeudy, Davis) sized extensions (compared to the cap). There’s just too much talent going around to justify paying them all.
While general managers are not as alarmed as I am about this issue, they still are working through the cap to sign these deals. There are multiple ways front offices can combat and are combating this issue right now:
- Let them walk: Simply let your receivers walk after their rookie deals
- Kick the can: Push cap hits down the road with extensions and void years
- Thin out: “Moneyball” other positions, notably Running Back
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