Across the league, wide receivers are now paid impulsively, thus a bubble is forming.
Franchises may circumvent this issue by allowing their WRs to walk in free agency.
Conveniently, the Steelers have practiced this for years.
25 Years.
The Steelers are an intriguing case study. At most, they allow one big WR contract on the books, and they doll them out sparingly.
Like Hines Ward, the team leader, a Super Bowl hero, and the stabilizing presence.
Or Antonio Brown, an all-time great wide receiver.
But other than that, it has been a revolving door.
Plaxico Burress, Antwaan Randle El, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, Martavis Bryant, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and Chase Claypool. Steeler wide receivers, for one reason or another, do not stick around much longer than their rookie contracts.
The pattern is much clearer when arranging their careers alongside each other.
Steeler
Rookie Contract
Suspended
Future
It’s beautiful, really. A turnstile, a waterfall, of wide receivers on inexpensive rookie deals. As one young talent approached free agency, another stepped up to take their place. Hail Hydra.
Since Antonio Brown went off the deep end, the Steelers have made some efforts to retain a wide receiver. JuJu stayed on a one year prove-it deal, an unfortunate consequence of lingering knee issues. Diontae Johnson inked the largest WR contract since Antonio Brown, a two-year deal, but was marooned to Carolina because he had effort and attitude issues. Volunteers, not hostages.
The more things seem to change, the more they stay the same. Don’t you think it’s strange?
Popular consensus praises the Steelers as a wide receiver factory. They’re the best team in the league at developing receiver talent into consistent contributors, in their own tier. I disagree.
Don’t get me wrong, wide-out talent scouting and coaching is excellent in Pittsburgh. But they don’t have a secret sauce or a magic potion, they have a dirty secret that they won’t tell you.
They’re drafting a TON of receivers
Amongst all NFL franchises, the average team spent 13.71 (SD 3.2) draft picks on round 1-4 WRs.
The Steelers led the league with 20.
This WR drafted stat is also positively correlated with Winning %, at 0.13.
I only included notably productive wide receivers in the waterfall graphic; but the franchise has drafted Six other day-two receivers since 2000 and added another five in round four.
It is, without a doubt, extreme. But every team has a different roster construction approach, prioritizing different positions and making different sacrifices. The Steelers, functionally, have been trading day-two draft capital for salary cap space.
You can’t build a perfect roster because you can’t sign everyone – the salary cap doesn’t allow it. It’s what I find so beautiful about the NFL. But in the pursuit of perfection, the rookie contract is a proven advantage. A rookie starter holds tremendous value due to the cost control advantage over a veteran. The hypothesis is simple:
No rookie contract is better systemic value than a receiver‘s
The wide receiver boom juiced the cost advantage for receivers. As I outlined in the Wide Receiver Bubble overview article, finding a productive receiver in the draft is easier than ever. This is why no rookie contract is so valuable now. The Steelers executed this strategy long before it peaked in effectiveness.
Ultimately, a QB rookie deal trumps all, but it’s a hell of a gamble. Rookie receiver contracts outproduce their cap hits more reliably. High end talents are less reliant on situation and circumstance than QBs, and day-two receivers are at a higher supply than day-two QBs. There is no sure thing in the NFL, but young wide-outs seem like a pretty good bet right about now.
Not every team can afford to take such an extreme approach. Game theory doesn’t allow it, the well is simply going to dry up. Some teams will shift in this direction over the next few years, but I doubt any franchises will go to this level.
Hell, I’m not sure the Steelers themselves will continue down this path. Omar Khan drastically changed how the Steelers operate, which begs the question:
What are the Steelers going to do with George Pickens?
The short answer is, I have no idea.
Pickens has all the talent of someone the Steelers want to keep around; however, he has an aptitude for making stupid decisions, moving at half-speed on routes, and displaying poor attitude. But he’s a perfect match with Russell Wilson.
George Pickens has a higher chance of getting traded this off-season or next year mid-season than some might expect. It wouldn’t be unprecedented.
Sources
Information
SpotRac, ESPN
