It’s no coincidence that the two sharpest front offices in the league, the Ravens and Eagles, signed the two bargain-bin elite running backs this offseason. There’s something so beautiful about that. It’s poetic, really.
We so readily accepted “never pay a running back.” Very few stepped back, questioned the status quo, and realized how insane that was.
We’re so back.
I didn’t forget about this project. I just got a job.
I’m now preparing to attend (lock in, and network at) the NFL Combine this year. I figured no time like the present to get back on the saddle and put in the work to get some more ideas in print.
The Salary Cap is King.
Because of the salary cap, every dollar spent on talent needs to be evaluated in terms of opportunity cost. The opportunity of a player signed takes away the opportunity to spend that player’s salary elsewhere. We get slammed in the face with this fact when star QBs get their first extension. That QB you extended, Patrick Mahomes? He’s worth it, but it means you must trade Tyreek Hill. Josh Allen’s extension is kicking in, we must trade Stefon Diggs.
This is why I prioritize analyzing player value within the context of salary cap hit.
Let’s compare RBs who signed contracts during the last
league calendar year. To provide additional salary cap context, I’ll sprinkle
in some WR2 extensions that were signed as well.
I’m using gtd. cap hit per year and Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE).
Each cap hit will be spread out differently for each team. However, the total cap hit averaged across years spent the team filters out some of this noise.
Identifying value is much more complicated than just using forms of yardage. However, RYOE demonstrates levels of tangible impact and results from the investment in your contracts.
I am painfully aware that there are higher levels of nuance that go into analyzing the value and financials from a contract. Fortunately, this example is so blatant, I don’t believe I need to be particularly precise, or particularly nuanced, to highlight the issue.
It is a market inefficiency for “top market” RBs to provide such high value, at such a reasonable price. Last off-season, we realized higher value from a free agent running back than a top of the market free agent wide receiver, especially if that wideout was not your primary wide receiver.
How didn’t we see this coming?
We had two of the most talented running backs of the last decade hit free agency at irrationally low prices.
From 2028-2023, every single other position’s franchise tag values increased. Why wouldn’t it? The cap goes up every year, contract sizes increase accordingly. Well….
Not only did the running back tag not increase; it decreased a mind boggling 16% from 11.9MM to 10.1MM. Meanwhile, the cap increased 24%.
In the past 10 years, the market for running backs soured from Le’Veon Bell’s disaster holdout, the dominance of the 2017 RB class skewed our perceptions of rookie RB success, and Legion of Boom wannabe defenses enabled passing offenses to shred the league.
But lately, the defenses were fighting back, as Mike McDonald, Vic Fangio, and Brian Flores designed units with novel strategies to curb passing attacks. Two high shells, terroristic blitzes, and novel defensive terminology practices curbed high octane deep pass games.
Market conditions were ripe for exploit.
Hindsight is 20/20.
It’s so easy for me to sit back and preach these ideas and retell how this happened. It is tricky to identify these trends in real time. But it’s not impossible. It takes some time, it takes some workshopping, and it takes some analysis, but it’s possible to work out these trends beforehand.
Me personally, as these storylines developed last offseason, I was not thinking about the salary cap perspective AT ALL. But I picked up on this trend midseason. I learned from this experience. I developed as a roster builder.
It’s easy to learn the wrong things. For example, the takeaway isn’t “we must pay running backs more.” I already know we’re going to see some real questionable contracts from some real questionable front offices real soon. We won’t see backs as good as Saquon, Derek Henry, and Josh Jacobs hit free agency because of what happened this year.
It’s important to ask your 5 Why’s and drill deep down into the root cause of the issue. By asking these questions, you can isolate a root cause and learned actionable lessons.
What I learned.
Pay Elite players, especially when at a discount.
We did some real mental gymnastics to explain why paying well-known elite talents Saquon Barkley and Derek Henry was a bad idea. It doesn’t even have to be super elite guys, we see here that Chuba Hubbard, Joe Mixon, and Josh Jacobs earned their pay this season.
We must always question the status quo.
History rewards those who are prepared to move first to act on the advantages they identify. The trickiest part is sticking to your guns and not listening to crowd pressure.
No one loses quite as hard as someone who is afraid to lose – afraid to try and win. If you just accept the status quo and move within the standards of the market, it is very difficult to build a meaningful advantage.
Fortune favors the bold.
